A Climate of Opportunity
By Stephen Mulkey, PhD
Warmer, then hot: A middle-of-the-road scenario calls for warmings of more than 6° C in high northern latitudes. Photo from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 4th Assessment Report, 2007. |
Evidence for human-caused climate change is now so compelling that policy makers are unlikely to ignore it. Earlier this month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."
The IPCC's report, the fourth in a series since 1990, was the work of 150 lead and 450 contributing authors, representing 113 nations. These researchers, most of whom were unpaid and newly recruited to this effort, concluded that the warming of the climate is "unequivocal" and that human activities are behind the unprecedented speed of change.
The temperature record is perhaps the most straightforward part of the report. The authors stated that future warming is "very unlikely" to be inconsequential. This echoes the consensus of 11 of the world's leading national academies of science, which stated in 2005 that we should mitigate the causes of climate change and prepare to adapt to the consequences.
As John Holdren, the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, put it last week, "We have three choices - mitigation, adaptation, and suffering." What we do in the near term will determine the mix of these.
Changes in key global climate parameters since 1973, compared to the scenarios of the IPCC. Photo / Stefan Rahmstorf, taken from the BBC.
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The scientific consensus
What is most remarkable about the scientific consensus is that there is one.
Scientists build their careers by challenging paradigms and reframing conventional wisdom in the light of new data. Scientists are skeptical by habit, but skepticism means rationally evaluating rather than mindlessly doubting. Science is the discipline of careful evaluation of all available evidence, leading to judgment of the current state of reliable knowledge, and current judgment is always falsifiable by new evidence. The work behind the IPCC reports and the joint academies statement is of the highest scientific standard and represents the views of the world's best experts.
The IPCC's latest report is sobering for some scientists because of what is left out.
Because the rate of increased ice flow from glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica had not measured sufficiently for inclusion in the models, the scientists limited their assessment of sea level rise primarily to factors affecting ocean expansion caused by heat. Similarly, they left out the thawing of the Arctic permafrost, which most scientists agree is accelerating, resulting in significant emissions of carbon dioxide and methane.
Accordingly, the estimate of sea level rise is conservative. Several scientists have argued that it could be much higher than the predicted 7 to 23 inches by 2100. Stefan Rahmstorf and colleagues recently reported in Science that the observed rises in temperature and sea level over the last 6 years have been at the upper limit of the IPCC's previous predictions.
Florida in the crosshairs and behind the curve
Florida is most vulnerable to the effects of climate change through sea level rise, hurricanes and associate storm surge. The new report states that increased hurricane intensity will be a "likely" consequence (greater than 66% probability) of rising sea surface temperatures in the early part of this century.
Topping our list of concerns should be the storm surge associated with more powerful hurricanes, which could seriously impact the almost 80% of our population that live in Florida's 35 coastal counties. At a recent executive forum for business leaders in Orlando, a senior representative of the insurance industry made it clear that Florida's risk exposure from global warming is considered extreme.
This 1000-year record tracks the rise in carbon emissions due to human activities (fossil fuel burning and land clearing) and
the subsequent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and air temperatures. Photo/Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), 2004. |
Given its vulnerability, it is striking that Florida is not a leader of states responding to climate change.
Florida is not among the 26 states that have climate action plans, nor is it one of the more than 20 states that require power companies to produce a portion of their electricity from renewable resources. A new report by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy notes that Florida is among the least efficient of the states, and about 45% of Florida's electricity needs in 2023 could be met through improvements in efficiency and the development of renewable energy. Residential photovoltaic electricity generation is mostly undeveloped in Florida, largely because of market and regulatory disincentives.
Opportunity and hope
The long emergency of climate change is far from hopeless. There is immense economic growth available to Florida through development of renewable energy, energy conservation, and efficient transportation.
The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy reports that savings in electricity bills could total $84 billion over 15 years. The Wall Street Journal recently reported on the formation of the US Climate Action Partnership, an alliance of major businesses, including Alcoa, BP America, Caterpillar Inc., Duke Energy, DuPont, General Electric, and PG&E Corporation. With combined assets of more than $1 trillion, this group has issued a call to implement a mandatory, flexible climate program based on a cap-and-trade approach that would allow emissions to be traded.
Florida industries could reap significant profits by being players in the cap-and-trade market. Similarly, Florida could employ a program of limits and market incentives to regulate emissions from the production and consumption of biofuels.
Because of the business opportunities emanating from climate change, I am more hopeful than I have been in 15 years that we can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Just as in the Great Depression, those who capitalize on the opportunities inherent in this challenge can create wealth. In a recent survey of 31 major companies for a Pew report on climate strategies, 90% said they believe that government regulation of emissions is imminent.
Profits await those companies who can meet the growth needs of Florida, while reducing greenhouse emissions.
Programs at UF, such as its Program in Resource Efficient Communities and the new Florida Institute for Sustainable Energy, can help society and industry meet this challenge.
As the science advisor to the Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida, my job is to make science accessible to the commissioners so that they can advise the Governor and Legislature on guiding Florida to a prosperous and sustainable future. This task is made easier by the outstanding talent and energy of the commissioners, and I am heartened by their proactive response to the compelling opportunities posed by this science. I encourage all of us to join with them in developing the tools for a sustainable future.
Dr. Stephen Mulkey serves as Science Advisor to the Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida. He is also the Director of Research and Outreach/Extension for the University of Florida, School of Natural Resource and Environment. Additionally he is Associate Professor in the Botany Department.
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