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With Help from SNRE Alumni, Farmers Plan for Rainy (and Sunny) Days

By Patrick Heck

If anyone thinks farmers live a simple life, they should think again. Farmers manage complex farming systems that play a vital role in the local economy and environment.

Two SNRE alumni, Drs. Victor Cabrera and Norman Breuer made sense of this industry as students. Today, they continue to assist farming communities through the use of whole farm simulation modeling and seasonal climate forecasting to help farmers better manage their farms to limit environmental degradation. Their hope is that better information will translate into better farming practices that easily comply with strict environmental standards and remain economically viable under uncertain climate conditions.

As Interdisciplinary Ecology PhD students, Victor Cabrera and Norman Breuer addressed methods to reduce the environmental impact dairy farmers have on the local ecosystems. Breuer and Cabrera understood that each of the daily responsibilities farmers, more specifically dairy farmers, perform contribute to nitrogen (N) leaching, a process where excess nitrogen seeps into the local water system. If adjusted slightly, these tasks (such as crop rotation, cattle management and waste remediation) could be managed in a way that would reduce N leaching. Using seasonal climate data, their goal was to provide farmers with long-term seasonal climate forecasts, in hopes that the information would be used to plant crops or rotate cattle differently, helping to lessen the environmental impact.

Research

Through a two-part interdisciplinary approach, their studies incorporated quantitative computer modeling techniques, designed by Victor, to combine two sets of data: the first included information on the daily tasks (i.e. crop rotations, etc.) and farm diagnostics (farm size, number of cattle, etc.). The second included information on current ENSO cycles*, "a phenomenon that determines El Niņo, La Niņa, or neutral years, each of which is associated with characteristic rainfall and temperature patterns in the study area," their study reported. With this information, the researchers were able to quantify the farmers' impact on the local environment.

Using an applied anthropological method, developed by UF's Professor Peter Hildebrand, the researchers conducted Sondeos, a team survey method developed to rapidly and economically provide information about agricultural and rural problems. This free flowing interview technique allows new and emerging information to present itself, letting the interviewer gather the farmer's true perceptions toward using a decision support system. Cabrera and Breuer evaluated the results of the Sondeos to see if incorporating this information [seasonal climate forecasts] into each farm's management plan would be a viable option.

Results

The results indicated that 65% of the dairy farmers surveyed believed they could incorporate long-term seasonal climate forecasts in the planning of their crop systems. "Many farmers make decisions every year based on the beliefs of if the seasons will be dryer/wetter, cooler/hotter.** For example, if the farmers expect an El Niņo phase, farmers will plant oats because oats do well in moist conditions. If they expect a La Niņa, they will choose rye because rye handles drier conditions much better," the researchers explained in one of their reports.

Their early assumptions were correct. Cabrera and Breuer concluded that by having the ability to predict long-term seasonal climate patterns, farmers would be able to incorporate this information into to their annual plans, allowing them to actively reduce the level of nitrogen leaching. However, there are limitations to the accuracy of the seasonal climate forecasting, which has turned some farmers away from using such technology.

According to Cabrera and Breuer, 23% of the farmers surveyed reported that they wouldn't use a forecast. Some farmers wouldn't use the recommendations because they were satisfied with their current systems and others choose not to use the forecast because many of the recommendations (i.e., when to plant certain crops/grass to limit N pollution) were infeasible for their operations. Some farmers explained that changing crops during certain ENSO years to reduce N pollution would limit milk production or would be too expensive to implement.

"The end goal of our research is to decrease the risk of pollution while acknowledging that there is an economic impact by doing so," explained Cabrera. "We want a reduction in pollution without decreasing a farm's profits."

"Farmers are willing to cooperate and do their part. But the best way to do this is to show them that one can be environmentally friendly and profitable at the same time. Interdisciplinary study is the key to approaching economic and ecological sustainability," added Breuer.

Both researchers agree that there is still more work to be done. "We need to change the perceptions of the farmers before we can ask them to change their systems," noted Cabrera.

The survey was just one step in a long process to develop a decision support system and despite having a few farmers show a lack of interest in the forecasting, taking the survey was important. "The survey is always productive as it gets people thinking. The thought process requires time for things to settle in and become part of a decision making environment," explained Breuer.

Following their graduation, both men continue to work with farmers and are developing improved farm management systems. When asked when and how their research will be implemented, Dr. Breuer added, "We are still working on dissemination of the new forecast technology and are looking at its potential uses. A full-scale impact study is planned for 2009."

*El Niņo Southern Oscillation Cycle

**El Niņo cycles are cool and wet. La Niņa cycles are warm and dry.

Dr. Breuer is an Assistant Research Scientist at the Rosenstiel School or Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami and a Courtesy Assistant Professor of Agriculture and Biological Engineering at UF. He works alongside Dr. Hildebrand to instruct researchers on the impact of Sondeos. He also works on assessment and adaptation research for the Southeast Climate Consortium which involves six universities.

Dr. Cabrera is an Assistant Professor and Extension Dairy Specialist at New Mexico State University working with the New Mexico dairy industry developing statewide Extension and research programs (dairy.nmsu.edu). He is a member of the American Association of Agricultural Engineers. He previously worked as a consultant for the Inter-American Development Bank where he developed Extension programs and training for small farmers in Peru. Click HERE to visit his website.

Click on the links below to learn more about Drs. Victor Cabrera and Norman Breuer's research.

North Florida Dairy Farmer Perceptions Toward the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast Technology

Prediction of Nitrogen Excretion in Dairy Farms Located in North Florida