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University of Florida
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School of Natural Resources and Environment |
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Vol. 1 Issue 1
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Fall 2005 |
Hurricane Charley makes landfall August 13, 2004 at Charlotte Harbor
in southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained
winds of 150 MPH. |
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms: Higher Frequency for the Future?
By James Cato
Katrina, Jeanne, Frances, Charley, and Ivan are familiar names to all of us. Unfortunately, they are not the names of our children or grandchildren coming for a summer visit. But based on historical records, Florida can expect them and their friends to visit more often over the coming years, and yes, decades.
Much about hurricanes and tropical storms has been spoken and written regarding their impacts during the last few years. Certainly, the human and economic impacts of these natural events have become more devastating as our coastal populations have increased dramatically. If history repeats itself, the state will have more storms and be in more frequent recovery mode for the next few decades.
Analyses of storm records from more than 100 years show that multi-decadal cycles exist in the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms. A 1992 article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by William Gray and Christopher Landsea indicates that seasonal and multi-decadal variations of intense hurricane activity on the U.S. East Coast are closely associated with above average seasonal and multi-decadal summer rainfall amounts in certain regions of Western Africa. Periods of higher rainfall there cause a larger number of U.S. East Coast storms. Another 2001 article, authored by a team of researchers led by Stanley Goldenberg, in Science attributed the recent increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin to simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and changes in the speed of winds at different altitudes.
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The cycle of Florida storms based on historical records is approximately 60-70 years from peak to peak. The cycle is also geographic in nature. Over a period of years, hurricanes and tropical storms tend to make landfall in a particular region. For example, from 1971-80, Florida was hit by only four storms of tropical storm strength or greater, while the coast from Texas through Alabama received 12 storms. Gray and Landsea's article indicates that Gulf of Mexico storms are highly dependent upon meteorological conditions in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. For an example of charted storm tracks in Florida since 1871, see the 2002 edition of "Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms," by John Williams and Iver Duedall, University Press of Florida, or track your own from the NOAA Web site http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/.
Florida's population is growing at a record pace. From 1960 to 1990, the time of the lowest frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms in Florida on record, Florida's population grew from 4.6 million to 12.9 million. This means that about two-thirds of Florida's population became residents during the least active hurricane period on record. Perhaps they have been lulled into a false sense of security about the potential impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms.
Almost 80 percent of Florida's
population lives in coastal counties. |
By most indications, however, Floridians can anticipate more severe weather and increasing devastation. The current population of Florida is about 17.5 million. By 2025, the population is predicted to be about 23 million. Today, almost 80 percent of Florida's population lives in the 35 coastal counties (of the 67 total counties in the state). Almost 80 percent of the state's economic activity occurs in these coastal counties. Everyone is learning fast that Florida will experience more storms over the next 20-30 years if historical trends repeat. The cycle appears to be repeating itself based on the previous decade and due to the pace of storms to date in the current decade. Since there will be huge numbers of new residents in the state, most of them locating on the coast, the impact of an increased number of storms will be much more dramatic, from both a personal safety and an economic perspective.
According to a June 2005 report issued by John Marburger, III, Science Advisor to the President, since 1900, hurricanes and tropical storms making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths and more than $100 billion in damages (adjusted to 2004 dollars) to homes and property. The 2004 series of major storms affected 15 states and cost billions of dollars in damages. If early estimates hold true, the economic damage caused by Katrina could equal about 25 percent of the cost of all storms to date, and add a substantial number of deaths to the 9,000 total from all earlier storms. If the frequency of storms returns to historical levels, then the loss in human lives and economic value has the potential to be staggering.
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